Thursday, June 29, 2017

INR update: Moderate risk on sentiment

Unnamed sources in ECB said that Draghi’s comments have been misinterpreted which perhaps indicates lack of confidence in inflation and could show in tomorrow’s EU CPI data. FED gave a go ahead to US banks to do buybacks and pay dividends signalling adequate capitalization, which was risk positive while iron and other metals rose on the back of Chinese demand in commodity markets. Carney again did a U turn saying that some amount of stimulus could be removed in the second half making GBP directionally uncertain. The fall in yields for US 10 Y from 2.25 to 2.22 has helped alleviate the mild EM currency depreciation that we were witnessing on the back of hawkish central banks.

Debt inflows of Rs. 2000 cr yesterday were on the back of long term investors who brought in Rs. 1400 crs and could indicate increasing investor appetite in Indian debt. If this is sustained then it could be a huge INR positive as the long term category still has ample limits left unlike the open GSEC category.


USDCNH is trading below 6.79 while KRW has appreciated by 0.5% since yesterday. Equity markets in Asia are moderately in the green creating a better risk environment than yesterday. With month end demand mostly behind us and quarter end selling perhaps pending we can see some INR appreciation. Also the increase in debt limits in July could drive some amount of speculative selling in USDINR. CMP 64.46, Range 64.53 – 64.35.

No comments:

Post a Comment