INR update: RBI's annual report suggests that INR is fairly valued

USD Index bounced on the back of tax reform comments by Trump and better than expected GDP revisions and ADP. Tax reform expectations should ideally result in higher US yields and therefore I would carefully watch the weekly closing on US10Y (critical levels 2.16%). The uptrend in Euro is intact till 1.1750 weekly close (200 Week MA) and dips should be used as an opportunity to buy.  Today EU CPI and US PCE data would be critical.

 

RBI’s annual report states that INR is fairly valued. Given the productivity improvement and dollar weakness, INR appreciation in recent months is not a worry. RBI also states the inflation differential between India and US has come down which is a building block for an appreciating currency . Therefore lower inflation in India is a prerequisite for appreciating INR from here on. RBI also clearly states that FPI money is hot while FDI inflows lead to justified appreciation of the local currency. Therefore if large FDI flows come in then further INR appreciation can be expected. RBI also states that in India’s case a current account deficit of 2.3% of GDP is sustainable. This year we are likely to touch 1.9% which would therefore not be a worry for the RBI. RBI also thinks that a consumption led growth is not totally undesirable.

 

USDINR 1m NDF is trading 6p left while KRW and CNH have mildly depreciated since yesterday. Asian equities are also moderately in the red as Korean geopolitical tensions refuse to go away. I would use upticks to sell USDINR for a move towards 63.50 and lower in September. Buying 63.75 strike put for September end might be a great idea as it also limits losses in case of an unexpected US-NK flare up. CMP 64.04, Range 64.11-63.94.

INR update: Measured Trump response and CNH appreciation, INR positive

After the convincing move yesterday and day before we can say that USD Index is convincingly trading below the 200 week moving average (92.57) and basis the Euro demand that has been seen in the price, I would think that we would close week below 92 (CMP 92.40) with Euro above 1.20. Trump made a unusually measured response against North Korea’s reckless missile test, perhaps indicating that the war of words is over. From here on either US would want to pursue North Korea diplomatically with decreasing tensions (more likely) or would take action against the non conforming state (unlikely in my view).

 

USDINR 1m NDF is trading 7p left with KRW stable at 1123 indicating reduced risk aversion than yesterday morning. CNH is below 6.60 which should reflect on INR sometime soon. September is the second most positive month for INR and with CNH appreciation we can see new lows on USDINR during the month. Asian equities are in the green and with dollar weakness in general uptick in USDINR should be limited. CMP 63.95, Range 64.00-63.85.

INR update: NK issues resurface spoiling risk sentiments

The NK missile test which made Japan tell its citizens to take cover is rare and escalates the situation, driving gold and US 10 Y at their highest levels since Trump came into power. In the last few months of escalating tensions between US and NK this perhaps is the most compelling reason for any country to do more than talk. UN meeting today and its outcome would be carefully watched for further queues.

 

USDINR 1m NDF is 5p left which is less than yesterday’s level. KRW has depreciated 0.6% since yesterday while CNH is on an appreciation path nearing 6.60 now. Further developments in the Korean peninsula can create a risk off environment ensuring that USDINR downside will remain limited for the day. Overnight lows for USDINR was 63.72. CMP 63.96, Range 63.90-64.10.  

INR update: India-China standoff worsens but approaches resolution during Brics

In Jackson Hole, Yellen did not want to increase expectations of balance sheet reduction in September, indicating that she is perhaps worried about debt ceiling and spending bill (read Trump). This is dollar negative as markets currently fully expect balance sheet reduction to start the coming month. Yellen opposed easing of financial regulation putting her at the opposite end of the Trump administration which indicates that she might not get a second term. Draghi’s lack of substantial comments and the above resulted in dollar weakness particularly against the Euro. Japan continues to emphasize on its asset purchase program while the political issues in UK prevent further GBP appreciation, resulting in most of the dollar weakness being expressed against the Euro only.  Strong Euro weekly closing above 1.19 last week would make me think that we will see today’s day end above 1.20. The week is data heavy with NFP (where earnings are most important) and flash CPIs in EU and US PCE data.

 

What markets are ignoring at the moment is the worsening of the India-China standoff over the last 48 hours. India has started building a road in Ladakh which is similar to what China is doing in Doklam. Chinese foreign ministry has made strong comments on the same while issuing a second warning for its citizens in India. Commentators suggest that the Brics summit in China (3rd-5th September) where Modi could bilaterally meet Xi can end up in the crisis getting resolved. September is historically the second most positive month for INR after March. After March 2017 India has not seen equity inflows and if the India-China issue gets resolved during the Brics summit it might prove to be a trigger for fresh inflows. If the standoff does not abate then we would see small spikes in USDINR and new lows would be difficult.

 

USDINR 1m NDF is trading 9p left which indicates further offshore selling. KRW indicates that Korean geopolitical risks can be ignored for now as Tillerson said that US would maintain peaceful pressure on North Korea. Last 1 month movement of other EM currencies indicates that INR’s equivalent level is between 63.80 and 64. Nationalized banks have aggressively bought dollars since morning preventing further appreciation of INR. CMP 63.89, Range 63.80-63.96.

INR update: Mild dollar weakness as Debt ceiling concerns near

The markets are so uneventful that the mild dollar weakness yesterday was ascribed to day before yesterday’s news of Trump threatening to shut down the government if the congress doesn’t fund for the wall. Some market commentary suggests that recent changes in the Trump administration might make the President achieve political consensus more effectively than before. September will be a crucial month for USD as debt ceiling and budget clash with each other for political consensus while the FED has built expectations of balance sheet reduction. Today UK GDP and existing home sales would move currency markets.

 

USDINR 1m NDF is trading 7p left while EM currencies have moderately appreciated since yesterday. Asian equities are mildly in the green as geo political concerns have reduced. I would think markets will remain cautious ahead of Jackson Hole and USDINR shorts might cut positions during the day driving the pair towards 64.15+. CMP 64.04, Range 63.98-64.15.

INR update: Jackson hole awaited as geopolitical risks abate

Italian political risks surfaced yesterday again with Berlusconi asking for a parallel Italian currency. But this is a tail risk as polls suggests that majority Italians are not in favour of an exit from the EU. Italian elections are supposed to be held before May end 2018. Italian 10 Y bond yields are at 2.1% and a break of 2.35% or 1.85% would indicate that these risks have increased substantially or have been mitigated totally. German elections are supposed to be held on 24 Sep 2017 where Merkel (euro positive) maintains a 15% lead over the second candidate.

 

Last year’s Jackson hole had set the tone for higher bond yields with focus on fiscal support to DM economies. The first step to this goal was stopping incremental liquidity infusion by central banks which was followed by the BOJ and ECB. The second step towards this would be reducing central bank balance sheet sizes along with increased fiscal expenditure of governments to support such economies when they cool off because of reduction in liquidity. Yellen may want to signal that balance sheet reduction and rate hikes would continue in spite of lack of price pressure so as to maintain the path towards the goal of reduced monetary stimulus, higher inflation and interest rates. I would expect USD index to bounce towards 95 levels during the next 4 days providing a good opportunity to build EURUSD longs.

 

USDINR 1m NDF is trading 6.5p left while KRW has appreciated to 1130 levels showing reduced NK-US risks. Indian equities are mildly in the green showing positive risk sentiments. If one were sitting on large amounts of USD to be sold against INR in this kind of environment then it would be a very uncomfortable position, and therefore I would expect that the FDI flows markets are expecting would be sold sooner than later. FPI flows continue in debt with pickup in long term category segment in August where limits are available. Nationalized banks continue to buy USDINR. CMP 64.13, Range 64.15-63.95.

EUROs share of FX reserves to increase driving Euro higher

Thanks to a learned friend for pointing this out.

The below chart shows Euro holdings of central banks across the globe since 2004. The current reserves of all central banks is USD 10.9 trillion out of which USD 8.8 trillion is allocated to FX assets. Euro holding are at USD 1.7 trillion or 19.28% of allocated holdings. (Data source is IMF website).

·        The share of Euro increased from 2004 to 2010 as concerns on sub prime crisis and post crisis events, weakened the confidence in USD. This indicates that central banks shift and allocate assets as events unfold.

·        Since 2011 Eurozone crisis, the holding for Euro assets decreased and in percentage terms continued to decline till 31 Mar 2017 when EURUSD was at 1.0650.

·        It is noteworthy that European bond yields and equity markets now do not indicate to any risk of euro zone dismantling unlike the period of 2011 – 2015, as the political climate in euro zone has significantly improved post French and Netherland elections. Italian 10 Y yields hover at 2% while all other major EU government bonds are well below Italian 10 Y yields. Greek 10 y yields are at 5.6% now.

·        As the second half of the 2017 passes the tail risk of Italian political risks unfolding also has reduced. Markets would now watch German elections in September 2017 where Merkel is in the lead.

·        On the other hand the political climate in the US has deteriorated with economic and reform policies on the backburner.

·        It is likely that in the next 2 years we see the percentage of Euro holdings going towards mid 20s. A 5% increase in euro holding should result in additional Euro demand of USD 440 bn over the next 2 years. Euro zone current account surplus is Euro 350 billion and therefore even 100 billion USD of additional demand in one year, could be good enough for euro to go higher by 10%.

·        The inflation trajectory and movement in current account data, according to the above hypothesis should be irrelevant for Euro to go higher as most important is the political certainty that Euro provides from here on and central banks reallocate their assets.

INR Update: No News on geopolitics is good news

PBOC official commented that Yuan might appreciate to 6.5 by the end of the year which led to USDCNY moving lower below 6.66 levels. Not much to comment upon globally apart from the fact that Korea concerns are not dominating sentiments for now.

 

USDINR 1m NDF is trading 5.5p left while markets await 2 FDI inflows this week. KRW has appreciated 0.4% since yesterday along with Yuan appreciation. FPIs continue to take money out of equities while debt market inflows clock around Rs. 1000 crs every day. Asian equities are in the green today as no news on India-China standoff is taken as good news. CMP 64.08, Range 64.15-63.95.

INR update: Mild dollar strength can be expected before Jackson Hole

The USD weakness or Euro strength trend seems to have ended for now as markets took reverse positions for the first time. Ahead of the Jackson hole this weekend we might see further profit taking in Euro expecting Draghi to express concerns on an appreciating Euro after ECB minutes signalled the same last week. One can expect more comments on NK-US standoff given the military drill between the latter and SK.

 

USDINR 1m NDF is trading 6p left indicating some offshore selling pressure. News paper reports indicate that FDI inflows for an ecommerce company and a private oil company can lead to some INR appreciation. Asian currencies are largely flat overnight giving little direction to INR. Equity markets seemed to have stabilized post the small correction in August although. FPIs continue to pour money in India debt wherever limits are available while equity markets continue to see chunky outflows. Geo political news could create moderate risk off given SK-USA joint drills and India-China standoff, apart from which the view on INR remains constructive. CMP 64.06, Range 64.15-63.95.

INR update: Dollar strenght and Indian geopolitics lead markets

USD strength returned on the back of very strong retail sales and manufacturing survey data which should result in Q2 GDP getting revised upwards. Dudley confirmed that markets can expect USD 10 bn per month of balance sheet reduction in Q4 along with another rate hike, both reemphasize that the FED is on track. A surprise here was something that I was looking at for USD index to break 200 week moving average of 92.3 and now if the FED is sticking to the plan USD index could remain range bound till Jackson Hole on the 24-26 Aug. In Jackson hole Draghi’s comments could be the trigger for Euro to move higher. NK tensions have gone on the back burner for now. Today we have the FOMC minutes, EU GDP and US housing starts.

 

India – China border disputes seldom result in any violence and to that extent the stone pelting incidence between India – China in Ladakh is unusual and could create mild risk off for USDINR, as the Doklam standoff continues. China in line with its stand of no talks did not attend the meetings with army on the 15th of August.

 

USDINR 1m NDF is trading 3.5p left indicating reduced selling pressure. EM currencies have depreciated mildly on the back of dollar strength. 64.20-64.30 is a strong resistance zone for USDINR and a weekly close below/above these levels could signal the next move for the rest of August. FPIs don’t have limits for debt investments while in equities we are seeing chunky outflows for now. I would sit square now and wait for the 64.20-30 levels to break comprehensively. CMP 64.25, Range 64.15-64.35.

INR update: Doklam standoff could continue without much escalation

Trump seems to have stopped his sabre rattling from his 17 day long working vacation, because of which risk sentiments seem to have improved (USDJPY, USDKRW and Equities). US CPI came in weaker than consensus for the fifth month in a row keeping the problem of low price pressure intact in the US. Although comments from FED speakers last week suggested that they are predetermined to proceed with the balance sheet reduction in September 2017. This week we will have the FOMC and ECB minutes.

 

The reason for current standoff in China is the fact that China has asserted that India needs to withdraw all forces from the Doklam plateau before both parties can sit across a table. Otherwise both the nations have been successful in handling their border disputes through diplomatic channels in the past few decades. Without going into the details of Calcutta Convention of 1894 or the other subsequent agreements which give credibility to arguments on both sides regarding Doklam, the Chinese stance is likely to continue till the 19th Congress which happens sometime in the next 2 months. Xi has been stoking nationalistic fervour within China and therefore the hard stance is a manifestation of the same but it is unlikely that China would want this to escalate into a small border war given the threat it faces with its bigger bargaining chip, i.e., North Korea against the US. It is worth noting that in 1962 China had withdrawn unilaterally, to the north of the Mcmohan line in spite of being in a stronger position, indicating that it has no intention of controlling regions to the North of the Himalayan ridges. Since 1962 the ambiguous border has been largely respected by both the parties indicating any lack of intent to capture more territory on either side.     

 

USDINR bounced on Friday afternoon as no incremental news on Doklam was interpreted by markets as good news. The recent past risk off sentiments related to India – Pakistan or India – China has unfolded in this manner and died down as incremental news stopped pouring in. USDINR 1m NDF is trading 4.5p left as compared to being flat on Friday. Asian and Indian equities are trading substantially in the green while KRW has appreciated to below 1140 levels now. Basis other EM currencies USDINR has the potential to move towards 63.80 levels today. CMP 64.02, Range 64.08-63.84.

INR update: Risk off sentiments dominate

US and NK continue to threaten each other coaxing the other to act first. US equities for the first time reacted to NK threat with yields falling and vols going higher. USDJPY broke key levels and clearly indicates a risk off sentiment. US PPI release yesterday shows the continued absence of inflationary pressure in the US which could weigh USD further down after the CPI release today.

 

The weekly fall in Korean stocks is the biggest since June 2016 indicating that the market is more concerned about NK-US tensions than it has been in the recent past. India – China news started concerning the markets yesterday as both sides militarised the area. A war between the two countries is very unlikely but the difference itself is enough to spoil risk sentiments. USDINR 1m NDF is trading flat now indicating that we would see onshore buying today. Other EM currencies are not as affected although CNH has depreciated 0.3% since yesterday after making new highs yesterday. Indian equities are 1% in the red. The recovery from here in risk sentiments will be quick but when is hard to guess. A weekly close below 64.19 would keep the down trend intact. CMP 64.19, Range 64.15 – 64.35.

INR update: S Korea and India fundamentally different

 NK crisis seems to have escalated although Tillerson has started talking down the threat. FED speakers impressed upon the need for balance sheet reduction to start in Sep 2017 itself. Today in Fed speakers Dudley’s comments would be important along with US PPI release ahead of the all important US CPI tomorrow.

 

USDINR has moved higher looking at KRW while CNH has appreciated to 6.68 levels. The move is offshore positioning driven as shorts have cut positions. Most other EM currencies do not justify the move up to 64.05 currently, but this goes to show the short term correlation USDINR has with USDKRW. In the longer run KRW is not correlated with INR (since 2010 KRW has hovered around 1150 +/- 10%) and currently more so as fundamentals are very different. For one the geopolitical factors are not comparable and second the real rate in SK is -1% as compared to +4% (currently) in India. Given these factors I would want to use KRW led USDINR upticks, to add to USDINR shorts.

 

USDINR 1m NDF is 3.5p left indicating reduced selling pressure. CNH has appreciated markedly to 6.68 while Asian equities are in substantial negative. The day does not look great for risk. The intraday trend in USDINR is higher. CMP 64.06, Range 64.15-63.92. A closing above or below 64 today, would give direction for subsequent moves.

INR 1Y forward view: headed lower?

Inflation and Interest rate view

·        High interest rates are required to control inflation. High real interest rates control demand and encourage people to save, thereby pushing inflation even lower.

·        The June 2017 RBI’s consumer confidence report indicates decreasing confidence that consumers have in their income growth and job opportunities. This coupled with high real rates should affect demand negatively as people save more.

·        GST in the short term can affect business and therefore spending confidence adversely.

·        Demonetization would affect consumer spending as the propensity to spend cash is much more than to spend tax paid money through cheque. Tax paid money is generally saved in FDs and equities.

·        For the next 8 months, India’s inflation should average 3% ((1.5+4.5)/2), therefore according to the current interest rate, for remaining FY18 India’s real interest rate would be 6-3=3%. Which is one of the highest in the world if not the highest. RBI a couple of years back has stated that 1.5-2% was its target for real interest rates. 

·        Such high real interest rate medicine, should ensure that inflation undershoots the forecasts in spite of the base effects and technical HRA adjustments, as demand could remain subdued. In fact a lower real interest rate could be required at CPI significantly below 4% pivot to boost demand.

·        Below target global inflation also points to this reality.

·        Appreciated INR keeps imported inflation and internationally benchmarked prices in check as well.

·        Therefore I would expect lower inflation readings and markets subsequently pricing in 1 more 25bps rate cut during the current FY.

USDINR 1Y forward view

o   Below chart shows India and US inflation differential vis a vis INR 1 Y forwads

o   In the last 1 year, although India’s inflation has surprised on the downside forwards have not been able to move significantly lower, except for the period of Nov 2016 when RBI stopped paying forwards as it neared the FCNRB repayments (chart below)

o   Current 1y forwards are at 4.3% while interest rate differential is at 5%. During period of INR appreciation (like the current one) forward rates have been 1.5-2% below interest rate differential. Looks like in June 2017 RBI has also allowed forwards to move lower as it cut rates.  

o   Going forward if RBI does not want INR to appreciate too much then it would want lower forwards. Higher forwards make carry trades more attractive and encourage speculative short USDINR positions, compounding RBI’s rupee and liquidity problems.

o   US is expected to raise rates once more in 2017 and once in 2018.

o   Given the India inflation view and the past behaviour of the forwards along with RBI’s reservation with significant INR appreciation, the following is what I would expect on USDINR 1 year forwards

·        Receive 1 year forward  at 280p or at 4.45% for a move to 3.5% pa or 223p at current spot. 248p could act as a strong support. Stop would be a weekly close above 295p (which would be a reversal of the June 2017 post rate cut move). CMP 275p.

INR update: Recurring NK concern creates risk off

The war of words between Trump and North Korea has resulted in a mild risk off affecting Asian equities, JPY and KRW in particular. North Korea is backed by China and too close to South Korea and Japan for a war to result. My ongoing belief is that in a globalized world two large countries of financial significance don’t fight a traditional war, in this case China and US. US would attack NK only if China withdraws support which would not happen as NK is a substantial bargaining chip for China to keep control over Japan and SK. Thus the arm twisting is likely to continue without any on the ground action unless Trump decides to do something which is not rationally foreseeable.

 

Yesterday US job openings data resulted in moderate rebound is USD index while today morning’s Chinese inflation data has resulted in CNH appreciating in spite of the NK concerns. USDINR 1m NDF is trading only 3.5p left which is half of the spread last week. Yesterday INR bulls started again by selling at 63.75 and have been doled out the recurring NK news which would make me think that USDINR can head higher today as shorts exit. Equity markets are in red are is on its way to register the first weekly loss since June 2017. INR has generally reacted more to geopolitical news than other EM currencies like SGD. Medium term view for INR remains of appreciation towards 63.20 (Aug end). CMP 63.77, Range 63.72-63.91.

INR update: CNH appreciation could drive INR today

Fed’s Bullard continued to be dovish on further hikes saying that even if unemployment falls to 3%, inflation would only rise to 1.8%. This was expected as Bullard has indicated similar views before, but it also indicates that the FED will have to think hard before embarking on balance sheet reduction as that would lead to further lowering of inflation expectations. A failure to announce balance sheet reduction in September might lead to dollar losses as the same is substantially priced in currently. It’s a data light day with Job opening reports in the US being the most important.

 

CNH has appreciated 0.3% since yesterday on the back of improving Chinese data. KRW has registered mild appreciation along with other EM currencies. USDINR 1m NDF is trading 5.5p left indicating reduced selling pressure in the offshore market as compared to last week. Debt inflows continue to trickle into corporate bonds as government bond limits are nearly exhausted. Another 4-5k crs of limits can gradually be utilized (ignoring state government bond limits). I would continue to stick to the major trend of INR appreciation. A break of 63.90 will open the risk of 64.20. CMP 63.73, Range 63.80-63.55.

INR update: Rupee appreciation likely to continue

Headline print on the NFP drove a moderate USD correction making it the first USD index gain week in a month. USDJPY failed to sustain above 111 as EURO edges back to 1.18, reinforcing the major trend of dollar weakness. CFTC positioning shows that for the last week EURO longs reduced their positions for the first time in over a month although the market remains significantly Euro long even now. Market still remains significantly JPY short although this was the second week where market reduced its JPY short positions, perhaps indicating a beginning of a trend here which can lead to JPY appreciation. This week US CPI would be the most important data print along with the FED speakers.

 

On a weekly basis USDINR gave a bearish closing last week with a convincing break of 63.85 support and technically the pair should follow through this week for a new low. USDINR 1m NDF is trading 5.5p left which indicates the dollar strength post the NFP. Asian equities are in the green as commodities rallied in Asia on the back of increasing optimism about China. China FX reserves data is due anytime today. Other EM currencies depreciated sharply post the NFP but have retraced since then. The medium term view for USDINR remains lower towards 63.20. CMP 63.68, Range 63.75-63.55.

USDJPY: begining of a downtrend?

·        USDJPY broke 200 week MA at 111.30

·        A triangle since Jan 2017 has been broken with a target of 104

·        In Daily 200 day has been cut by 55 dma signalling a bearish move

·        Daily RSI is below 40 indicating a downtrend

·        Fundamentally

o   It is signalling a reversal of the bullish move in USDJPY that happened post Trump came in

o   The move can happen because of the impending political issues in US like Russia Investigation, trade sanctions on China, budget and debt ceiling related standoff going into September.

o   US yields can come lower if the FED fails to deliver on the balance sheet reduction announcement in Sep 2016

·        View

o   Sell USDJPY at 110.25, 110.75 and 111.25 with stop over 112.36 or weekly close above 111.50, for a move to 108.50, which can be trailed for a further down move towards 105.

o   Stop sell can be initiated at a 4 hourly close below 109.80 with stop above 110.50 for same targets.

USDINR follow through behavior during INR appreciation

Below table has the following description, observation and conclusion. ·        I have taken USDINR since 2014 for daily movement greater than 0.5 % INR appreciation ·        Yellow and green rows show subsequent appreciation days of more than 0.5% within a month, clubbed together. There is no difference between yellow and green clubs. ·        Red shows when a 0.5 % appreciation is not followed by another 0.5% appreciation day within a month ·        The last column shows whether USDINR was in an uptrend or downtrend during that period. Uptrend is price making new highs in weekly line chart and downtrend is price making new lows. ·        Observation o   USDINR reds, i.e., days when another 0.5% appreciation move has not come within a month has only happened when USDINR was in a uptrend. Therefore such moves were more because of a correction or a flow without follow through. o   Whenever USDINR has been in a downtrend a 0.5% INR appreciation has been followed up by at least one more 0.5% + appreciation within a month o   Even in uptrend on a few occasions the appreciation days have seen follow through. o   In a downtrend we have not seen a day without follow through appreciation. ·        Conclusion o   We should see another move in the next fortnight which could take USDINR to 63.20 levels while 63.90 should remain capped. o   Looking at the history there could be more than 1 such move taking the pair further lower. Date (GMT) Open High Low Last Move over last day close Trend in weekly line chart 06-Mar-14 61.53 61.53 61.1 61.11 -1.04% Downtrend 21-Mar-14 61.19 61.2 60.895 60.895 -0.73% Downtrend 26-Mar-14 60.3 60.3 60.06 60.14 -0.56% Downtrend 28-Mar-14 60.18 60.18 59.68 59.91 -0.66% Downtrend 25-Apr-14 61.06 61.145 60.5375 60.6 -0.77% Downtrend 13-May-14 59.7 59.925 59.585 59.68 -0.62% Downtrend 15-May-14 59.5 59.6 59.08 59.29 -0.65% Downtrend 16-May-14 58.98 59.09 58.615 58.79 -0.84% Downtrend 22-May-14 58.6 58.685 58.41 58.4675 -0.52% Downtrend 19-Jun-14 59.99 60.185 59.85 60.08 -0.51% Uptrend 02-Jul-14 60.06 60.09 59.62 59.69 -0.63% Uptrend 14-Aug-14 61.1 61.115 60.76 60.76 -0.74% Uptrend 09-Oct-14 61.13 61.13 60.9 61.05 -0.57% Uptrend 17-Oct-14 61.68 61.745 61.41 61.44 -0.64% Uptrend 18-Dec-14 63.35 63.39 63.11 63.11 -0.79% Downtrend 31-Dec-14 63.31 63.385 63.03 63.03 -0.55% Downtrend 07-Jan-15 63.51 63.555 63.16 63.17 -0.63% Downtrend 08-Jan-15 63.2 63.2 62.5875 62.67 -0.79% Downtrend 09-Jan-15 62.48 62.52 62.29 62.325 -0.55% Downtrend 06-Apr-15 62.03 62.23 62.07 62.18 -0.50% Uptrend 28-Apr-15 63.35 63.4575 63.11 63.145 -0.53% Uptrend 14-May-15 63.97 64.03 63.61 63.65 -0.55% Uptrend 18-Jun-15 63.94 63.95 63.7 63.73 -0.59% Uptrend 25-Aug-15 66.56 66.76 65.86 66.1 -0.81% Uptrend 18-Sep-15 66.15 66.22 65.67 65.67 -1.18% Downtrend 30-Sep-15 65.87 65.87 65.57 65.5825 -0.57% Downtrend 07-Oct-15 65.3 65.36 64.95 64.98 -0.65% Downtrend 22-Jan-16 67.8 67.84 67.6 67.625 -0.58% Uptrend 29-Jan-16 68.1 68.125 67.775 67.78 -0.66% Downtrend 04-Feb-16 67.85 67.88 67.54 67.54 -0.78% Downtrend 01-Mar-16 68.27 68.36 67.85 67.855 -0.83% Downtrend 17-Mar-16 66.9 66.9525 66.6375 66.745 -0.71% Downtrend 25-May-16 67.63 67.63 67.3 67.33 -0.62% Uptrend 22-Sep-16 66.86 66.89 66.6525 66.66 -0.53% Uptrend 01-Feb-17 67.65 67.685 67.4625 67.475 -0.57% Downtrend 09-Feb-17 67.04 67.07 66.84 66.8425 -0.51% Downtrend 14-Mar-17 66.2 66.245 65.77 65.815 -1.18% Downtrend 27-Mar-17 65.28 65.28 65.03 65.035 -0.57% Downtrend 06-Apr-17 65.05 65.06 64.5 64.51 -0.55% Downtrend 02-Aug-17 64.12 64.135 63.59 63.7 -0.58% Downtrend