USDINR follow through behavior during INR appreciation

Below table has the following description, observation and conclusion. ·        I have taken USDINR since 2014 for daily movement greater than 0.5 % INR appreciation ·        Yellow and green rows show subsequent appreciation days of more than 0.5% within a month, clubbed together. There is no difference between yellow and green clubs. ·        Red shows when a 0.5 % appreciation is not followed by another 0.5% appreciation day within a month ·        The last column shows whether USDINR was in an uptrend or downtrend during that period. Uptrend is price making new highs in weekly line chart and downtrend is price making new lows. ·        Observation o   USDINR reds, i.e., days when another 0.5% appreciation move has not come within a month has only happened when USDINR was in a uptrend. Therefore such moves were more because of a correction or a flow without follow through. o   Whenever USDINR has been in a downtrend a 0.5% INR appreciation has been followed up by at least one more 0.5% + appreciation within a month o   Even in uptrend on a few occasions the appreciation days have seen follow through. o   In a downtrend we have not seen a day without follow through appreciation. ·        Conclusion o   We should see another move in the next fortnight which could take USDINR to 63.20 levels while 63.90 should remain capped. o   Looking at the history there could be more than 1 such move taking the pair further lower. Date (GMT) Open High Low Last Move over last day close Trend in weekly line chart 06-Mar-14 61.53 61.53 61.1 61.11 -1.04% Downtrend 21-Mar-14 61.19 61.2 60.895 60.895 -0.73% Downtrend 26-Mar-14 60.3 60.3 60.06 60.14 -0.56% Downtrend 28-Mar-14 60.18 60.18 59.68 59.91 -0.66% Downtrend 25-Apr-14 61.06 61.145 60.5375 60.6 -0.77% Downtrend 13-May-14 59.7 59.925 59.585 59.68 -0.62% Downtrend 15-May-14 59.5 59.6 59.08 59.29 -0.65% Downtrend 16-May-14 58.98 59.09 58.615 58.79 -0.84% Downtrend 22-May-14 58.6 58.685 58.41 58.4675 -0.52% Downtrend 19-Jun-14 59.99 60.185 59.85 60.08 -0.51% Uptrend 02-Jul-14 60.06 60.09 59.62 59.69 -0.63% Uptrend 14-Aug-14 61.1 61.115 60.76 60.76 -0.74% Uptrend 09-Oct-14 61.13 61.13 60.9 61.05 -0.57% Uptrend 17-Oct-14 61.68 61.745 61.41 61.44 -0.64% Uptrend 18-Dec-14 63.35 63.39 63.11 63.11 -0.79% Downtrend 31-Dec-14 63.31 63.385 63.03 63.03 -0.55% Downtrend 07-Jan-15 63.51 63.555 63.16 63.17 -0.63% Downtrend 08-Jan-15 63.2 63.2 62.5875 62.67 -0.79% Downtrend 09-Jan-15 62.48 62.52 62.29 62.325 -0.55% Downtrend 06-Apr-15 62.03 62.23 62.07 62.18 -0.50% Uptrend 28-Apr-15 63.35 63.4575 63.11 63.145 -0.53% Uptrend 14-May-15 63.97 64.03 63.61 63.65 -0.55% Uptrend 18-Jun-15 63.94 63.95 63.7 63.73 -0.59% Uptrend 25-Aug-15 66.56 66.76 65.86 66.1 -0.81% Uptrend 18-Sep-15 66.15 66.22 65.67 65.67 -1.18% Downtrend 30-Sep-15 65.87 65.87 65.57 65.5825 -0.57% Downtrend 07-Oct-15 65.3 65.36 64.95 64.98 -0.65% Downtrend 22-Jan-16 67.8 67.84 67.6 67.625 -0.58% Uptrend 29-Jan-16 68.1 68.125 67.775 67.78 -0.66% Downtrend 04-Feb-16 67.85 67.88 67.54 67.54 -0.78% Downtrend 01-Mar-16 68.27 68.36 67.85 67.855 -0.83% Downtrend 17-Mar-16 66.9 66.9525 66.6375 66.745 -0.71% Downtrend 25-May-16 67.63 67.63 67.3 67.33 -0.62% Uptrend 22-Sep-16 66.86 66.89 66.6525 66.66 -0.53% Uptrend 01-Feb-17 67.65 67.685 67.4625 67.475 -0.57% Downtrend 09-Feb-17 67.04 67.07 66.84 66.8425 -0.51% Downtrend 14-Mar-17 66.2 66.245 65.77 65.815 -1.18% Downtrend 27-Mar-17 65.28 65.28 65.03 65.035 -0.57% Downtrend 06-Apr-17 65.05 65.06 64.5 64.51 -0.55% Downtrend 02-Aug-17 64.12 64.135 63.59 63.7 -0.58% Downtrend