It’s consensus that the FED would do a dovish hike today.
Therefore dollar weakness trades around the FOMC would be crowded. Euro area
data has been surprising on the lower side and therefore Euro might be in for
some correction. One could use uptick above 1.28 in GBP to sell or in Euro
above 1.1260 to initiate short term trades. US Retail sales data would be
keenly watched for Q2 GDP tracking.
Markets are exceptionally quiet. Expecting US 10 y yields to
fall post FOMC we might see USDINR headed towards 64.20 tomorrow morning and
therefore I would look to initiate shorts at 64.40 levels. USDINR 1m NDF is
trading 4p left giving no significant direction while EM currencies are flat to
mildly positive. Equity markets seem to be lacking momentum. Medium term I
would expect USDINR to break the range of 64.20-64.60, on the lower side only.
CMP 64.35, Range 64.42-64.25.
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