Friday, April 26, 2019

INR update: Oil Politics, Euro gaining momentum, US GDP to be watched


Today the US GDP data could push EURUSD below 1.10 mark given the recent build up in downward momentum. Most DM central banks are turning dovish and a stronger US GDP data can have its maximum impact on EURO. Saudi Arabia will likely cooperate with the US to ensure that oil supply concerns does not result in higher oil prices. The US Iran nuclear deal in 2015 was the major reason the two long term allies (US and Iran) developed their differences, which led Saudi to cooperate with Russia. Now with the US pulling out of the nuclear deal and reinstating sanction on Iran, there is nothing that Saudi would like more. Therefore Saudi is likely to pay heed to the US demand of lower oil prices with sufficient supply. Technically a break of 71.8 calls for 78 levels which can be due to Iran’s counter measures, but a runaway move looks unlikely in spite of reduced supply because of the international politics involved.

USDINR 1m NDF is trading 8p right while CNH has mildly appreciated since yesterday although KRW continues to exhibit weakness. This accompanied with dollar strength and higher oil prices does not bode well for INR. It seems that there are no major inflows in pipeline for USDINR in the next 2 weeks. 70.18/20 was a major resistance which has been broken yesterday and today again, which makes it a convincing break. USDINR could head towards 70.88 levels in the next fortnight with downside limited to 69.85. CMP 70.17, Range 70.10-70.35.


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