Tuesday, April 23, 2019

INR update: Iran sanctions to push Brent higher, RBI swap auction, while inflows continue



If the US could not do anything to North Korea it was because of NK’s nuclear arsenal. On the other hand Iran’s main deterrent is its control over the strait of Hormuz which enables it to protect its regime against a US-Saudi enabled topple. Now with the US sanctions back in effect Iran would threaten closing the strait of Hormuz which in turn will create supply fears for oil globally. Break of 72.80 in Brent, technically also signals 78 levels in the next 1-2 months.

News reports of sale of a packaging companies stake to a US PE again proves that decision makers want to close their stake sale / capital raising / borrowing plans before the 23rd May election results. The story in USDINR remains the same, Brent is pointing towards a higher level for USDINR while inflows and intervention keep Rupee losses in check. Today we have the RBI swap auction because of which price action during the day could be a bit unpredictable. Looking at the selling in USDINR yesterday it seems that 69.87 should hold for the day, while further gains in Brent can take it beyond 70 levels towards 70.30. On the other hand Brent prices would ensure that USDINR would be unable to go below 69.30 levels in the next fortnight. CMP 69.59, Range 69.87-69.30.  


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