IMF revised global growth lower on expected lines but this
along with renewed trade tensions between the US and EU would keep global risk
sentiments slightly negative. Today we have the ECB policy announcement which
could finally lead to a break in EURUSD on the lower side below its support
zone of 1.1175-1.12, given the recent run of negative data from the EU and
trade tensions the ECB could be more accommodative and sooner than what the
market expects. US CPI and US FOMC minutes today, on the other hand would give
more clarity on the FED’s next rate action.
USDINR 1m NDF is trading 7p right since the last 3 days. The
price action yesterday was driven by some inflow. News reports suggests that
there could be more bond issuance/stake sale/ FPI related inflows in the
pipeline between now and end April which should keep USDINR offered. I would
continue to expect a range of 69.50-68.50 for the rest of April. For the
day CMP 69.17, Range 69.25-69.00.
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