With US core CPI at 2.4% and healthy growth it is unlikely
that the Fed can pay heed to Trump’s comments yesterday where the president
wanted the central bank to not raise rates. Powell would most likely refrain
from making a direct comment on the President’s view on the monetary policy in
his 24th of August speech at the Jackson Hole. On the other hand
Trump’s mention of CNH and EUR being manipulated is in direct contrast to the
treasury report (equivalent to a finance ministry report in India) which said
that China has intervened heavily to prevent sharper depreciation in CNH and EU
has not intervened in the currency markets as per international agreements.
Basis this, I would think that yesterdays move in dollar index from 96 to 95.5
would be reversed by the end of this week.
USDINR 1m NDF is trading 7p right which is less that the 9p
yesterday indicating reduced offshore buying pressure. EM currencies have
appreciated in tandem with the overnight dollar weakness. From the price action
since open it seems that today also INR should remain on a mild and temporary
appreciation trajectory. The movement in USDINR should closely track EURUSD
during the day. CMP 69.57, Range 69.40-69.70.
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