Powell and Bullard seem to have started a new communication
theme for the FED which is not as hawkish and could be in sync with what their
President wants, i.e., slower rate hikes. The FED generally persists with a
particular line of communication for months and therefore further FED speakers
must be closely heard now, incidentally there are no FED speakers scheduled
this week.
The other interesting development was PBOCs announcement of
using counter cyclical factor again for CNY fixing. Last time PBOC used it in
2017, it led to a 8% appreciation in Yuan. Technically, on the weekly charts
USDCNH is showing signs of a strong reversal which could take it to 6.76-6.71
levels (CMP 6.80).
USDINR 1m NDF has cooled off to only 4.5p right from 8p
right last week. On the other hand an appreciating USDCNH should be the overriding
factor in the short term for INR even though Brent at 76 levels is a bigger
worry from a CAD perspective. MXN can register further appreciation if the
NAFTA deal is announced which can positively affect all EM currencies. The
range for the week could be 69.50-70.10. CMP 69.88, Range for the day
69.95-69.70.
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