EUR, DXY and CNH weekly charts are showing a 3 candle
pattern of a strong reversal. The last time we saw a reversal like this in
EURUSD was in Nov 2017 which led the single currency gain from 1.16 to 1.25
levels. This is on the back of Trump going slightly soft on trade (Mexico
deal), the FED becoming more cognizant of further rate hikes (Powell’s
comments) and marginal data disappointment in the US (PMI). China on the other
hand has shown that it does not want Yuan to depreciate beyond 6.9 at this
juncture which also adds to the overall dollar weakness.
USDINR 1m NDF is trading 6p right today as EM currencies are
trading slightly weaker than yesterday night when USDINR traded at 69.85 in
offshore markets. Brent above 76 levels will put doubts into the minds of
people who would want to sell USDINR on the back of dollar weakness. Equity
markets and USDINR have shown little correlation as FII flows remain muted. For
the week USDINR could trade in a range of 70.30-69.60. CMP 70.11, Range
70.20-69.90.
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