Tuesday, November 14, 2017

INR update: US tax bill to be watched for further direction  

US 10 Y yields continued to trade higher than 2.4% in a quiet day yesterday. The house of representatives is expected to vote on the tax bill this Thursday as the administration’s target has been to get it through both houses by 23rdNovember. Chinese data today morning was just below expectations with little market impact. Today there is a panel discussion between the biggest central bank governors, Yellen, Draghi, Kuroda and Carney, the topic being central bank communication challenges. ‘

 

India CPI data released yesterday showed that inflation continues to advance at a faster than expected pace which rules out any rate cut expectations for December policy, driving India 10Y yields to 7% (highest since Sep 2016). USDINR 1w and 1M NDF do not show any significant buying pressure today as both are flat as compared to onshore markets. Other EM currencies have mildly appreciated since yesterday. Equity markets show that risk continues to be on the back foot. Brent has retraced below 63 levels. With US and India yields both rising I would continue to think that downside for USDINR is limited and a break of 65.50 can lead to another 0.5% up move in a hurry. For the day, CMP 65.37, Range 65.30-65.50.  

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