Tuesday, November 7, 2017

INR update: Oil price rise could limit INR appreciation

Globally the noteworthy move is in commodities which have gained across the board led by oil prices. This indicates the global growth momentum and should reflect in higher inflation expectations going forward resulting in higher yields. Today Yellen speaks as the US congress continues to deliberate on the tax bill.

 

Brent trading above 64 would ring some bells for India’s fiscal targets as the government now faces political pressure against raising fuel prices, thereby increasing the pressure on India’s fiscal deficit. Plus a higher oil would increase the pressure on the country’s current account thereby making me think that downside for USDINR is limited. 64.50 has a congestion of supports (200 DMA, retracement and recent price bottom) and therefore I would expect the level to hold. Meanwhile markets also have one eye on IPO flows plus a major real estate stake sale of Rs 9600 crs. USDINR 1m NDF is trading 2p left while KRW is trading strong at 1111 levels. For the day, CMP 64.68, Range 64.74-64.58.

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