Monday, November 27, 2017

INR update: Dollar weakness and improving local sentiments

As it looks certain that the Senate will pass its version of the tax cuts on Thursday, the market has started looking beyond, i.e., at the strong Euro zone growth and lack of higher inflation in the US which could result in lesser rate hikes in 2018. The interest rate differential theory has not been working between the USD and EURO driving EURUSD higher, at the same time the traditional correlation of stronger Yen with weaker global equities doesn’t seem to hold either. This week we have the senate vote, US ISM and US GDP data that would be critical along with housing releases.

 

India 10Y seems to have stabilised around 7% as the outlook on government finances improved in the last 15 days. USDINR 1m NDF is trading slightly right while EM currencies are mixed. Overnight as EURUSD moved to 1.1944 USDINR traded at 64.55 in the offshore market. Thus the 25p up move seems overdone to me in spite of the fact that Asian equities are moderately in the red. CMP 64.78, Range 64.85-64.60.

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