In the absence of any comments from team Trump the markets
are directionless with opposing forces in EUR and JPY keeping dollar weakness
at bay for the time being. A 4 hourly close below 112 in USDJPY can take the
pair towards 111.30 while 99.50 on dollar index is still critical to watch on a
weekly basis. In the US the JOLTS data yesterday showed that job openings are
still higher than actual hiring, indicating that demand for labour in the US is
very strong and employment is not the biggest problem that Trump could be
addressing.
Today we have the RBI policy where market expects a 25bps
rate cut. Given that the economic survey indicated that inflation has come
lower plus there is a temporary growth impact due to demonetization, I would
think that a 25bps rate cut is on the cards and would not move the markets by
much given that the eventuality is priced in. On the other hand no rate cut
might be taken negatively by equity markets and USDINR could move higher.
USDINR 1m NDF is trading 5.5p left while KRW and CNH are at
similar levels as yesterday. Equity markets in Asia are mildly in the red while
dollar continues to trade well above 100 levels. CMP 67.33, Range 67.40-67.20.
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