Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Morning INR update

Dow has broken higher, out of the pause in January on the back of tax cut expectations and dollar strength is gaining steam again. Reconciling to the one China policy, mellowing down on the travel ban and by not making too many headlines after meeting Abe, could suggest that Trump’s advisors are taking charge now which could reignite the Trump trade. Today Yellen testifies and I expect her to push the March rate hike chances higher although an actual rate hike in March looks difficult to me. Overall I would position myself for further dollar strength from here.

Today EM currencies have appreciated (KRW and CNH) while NDF 1m continues to trade left by 7p. Dow breaking higher should be positive for Indian equities although continued dollar strength could still drive USDINR higher in the medium term. EM currencies appreciation and USDINR NDF spread seems to suggest that INR can appreciate today. CMP 66.94, Range 67.00-66.80.

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