Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Morning INR update

The growing support for the far right French presidential candidate Le Pen (who wants France to exit EU), is driving peripheral yields higher in Europe and affecting risk sentiments globally. Consequently reserve currencies like USD, JPY and CHF strengthened while EUR remained offered. The major theme still would be what the most powerful administration in the world desires and therefore I would stay away from EURUSD as a pair for the time being. Risk off sentiment coupled with dollar weakness policy folds in perfectly to add to USDJPY shorts for a move below 110 by EOW.

Today we have the Chinese FX reserves data which can affect risk sentiments in Asia. Equity markets are mildly in the negative while USDINR 1m NDF is trading 7p left. Immediate global factors seem to be INR negative (as EM currencies depreciated) but the fact that we have the RBI policy tomorrow (where it seems that RBI is most likely to cut) makes me believe that upside for USDINR is limited and risk locally should remain supported. CMP 67.34, Range 67.39-67.15.

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