EURUSD 200 WMA is at 1.1333 (CMP 1.1276). A break of 200 WMA
essentially means 4 year price levels breaking and it technically signals a
further large move down. Looking at Euro area data release the chances of it
bouncing from the current levels look slim although from a trading perspective
it is prudent to wait till 22nd Feb (2 weekly closes) before we
confirm the break out. The chances of a runaway move immediately looks low as
US data surprise is also in the negative. The developing breakout in EURUSD
also challenges the view of a weaker USD this year on back of a dovish FED.
US-China trade talks is the nearest big event from a market perspective.
USDINR 1m NDF is trading 5 p right. Price action suggests
that some inflow is going through. News reports suggest that certain telecom
and divestment related investments are resulting in USDINR getting sold off.
Global queues should have driven USDINR higher (USD strength and firm oil
prices). But in spite of that if USDINR has gotten sold it confirms supply of
dollars for the time being. Broader range of 71-71.50 should continue to hold
but temporary break to 70.85 is possible given the inflow. CMP 70.99, Range
70.85-71.20.
No comments:
Post a Comment