The ECB minutes show that the next move from the central bank could be accommodative, perhaps in the form of fresh LTROs to provide banks with long term funds. On the other hand the FED which has shrunk its balance sheet by $480 bn in the last 16 months is anticipated to slow down its unwinding sometime in 2019. Thus from an equity perspective, liquidity tightness seems to be slowing down, which should ensure equity gains globally as long as growth does not surprise to the down side, especially in the US. Till now the growth slowdown in the US is on expected lines while EU slowdown has been faster than expected. EURUSD continues to hover around 200 WMA (@1.1336) and therefore it is better to trade range of 1.15-1.13, as prices remain in range more often than otherwise.
Momentum in gains of Brent prices seems to have cooled off which indicates that 68.3 as a resistance should hold. Geo political tensions between India and Pakistan is slowly increasing although still remains in the background. Planned inflows over the next 40 days should bring in some offers in USDINR as well keeping the upside limited unless geo political tension truly escalate. CNH pared gains on the back of news that China is considering buying additional $30 bn worth of agricultural products from the US. USDINR 1m NDF is trading 2p right while EM currencies have depreciated overnight. Broadly USDINR should remain in 71.05-71.55 range. For the day CMP 71.18, Range 71.11-71.33.
No comments:
Post a Comment