The move in Yuan suggests that China is weaponising it’s currency in the trade war. In case of Yuan depreciation, all EMs will follow therefore any relief rally in EMs should be short lived in the absence of a sharp reversal in USDCNH (weekly close below 6.60 will be critical). In the EU summit, member states reached a deal on migration which was being looked as a threat to Merkel’s government and to the EU itself in the longer run. This news drove EURUSD higher in the Asian session.
USDINR 1m NDF has come lower to 29p indicating reduced buying pressure since yesterday. Yuan and KRW have appreciated since yesterday along with other EM currencies. Oil continues to trade above 77 with FII outflows remaining at elevated levels. The down move in USDINR today could extend to 68.25 levels which should be short lived and a quarter end related move only. Equities in Asia are in the green supporting risk. I would expect to see 70 on USDINR in July unless CNH stops depreciating. For today CMP 68.56, Range 68.70-68.25.
No comments:
Post a Comment