Friday, May 12, 2017

Morning INR update: Freeway ahead for risk?

The selloff in oil and commodities has abated and equity markets have sustained at the highs. The scare higher US yields were having on EM assets doesn’t seem to be worrying the markets anymore. With so much of landscape there can never be a time without any geo political risks but other than that most risks seems to be factored in and the rally in risk assets could gain momentum again. Today we have retail sales and CPI in the US which would be could be critical to ascertain US growth trajectory, given the fact that consumer spending has been the biggest concern in Q1 and a rebound there could bring cheer to the Dow.

Markets are talking about Masala bond and QIP inflows and expecting USDINR to move lower. USDINR 1m NDF is trading 3.5p left which is not reflective of such inflow expectations. Other EM currencies have appreciated significantly over the last 2 days along with INR. Asian equity markets are flat to mildly negative. FPI inflows into debt continues while equities flows remain dependent on large issues or one offs. I would like to maintain overnight shorts in USDINR. CMP 64.30, Range 64.15-64.40.

No comments:

Post a Comment