Wednesday, May 24, 2017

INR update: US budget fails to change sentiments

Reports seem to suggest that Trump’s budget blueprint released yesterday is politically very ambitious and therefore impractical. Mnuchin expects the tax reforms to pass in 2017 but not by August 2017 indicating further delay in Market’s expectation from Trump. New Home sales and Manufacturing index yesterday surprised on the downside. Harker who had previous been hawkish showed signs of change when he said that another surprise on inflation on the downside would worry him a little. Today we have the FOMC minutes which would drive markets shedding light on FEDs discussions regarding balance sheet unwinding. A weekly close on dollar index below 96.5 would start a new downtrend and otherwise a bounce could be expected.


USDINR got bought yesterday on the news of India-Pakistan border skirmish where we can see follow up developments as both countries take turns to deliver an aggressive reply. EM currencies have mildly depreciated since yesterday while equity markets are in the green. We continue to see bids in USDINR from various quarters. We can expect RBI to intervene above 65 levels. I would continue to remain overnight long for a move to 65.25 in May. CMP 64.95, Range 65.02-64.85.   

No comments:

Post a Comment