2019 snapshot and what's next for currencies?

2019 snapshot and what's next for currencies?

In 2019 dollar index gradually drifted higher as trade war escalated; trading above its 200 WMA (at 96) for the entire year and just below a 20 year downward sloping trend line (at 99), a break of either would determine the next move across currencies. CMP  97.65.

EURUSD similarly was not able to breach its 200 WMA during the year at 1.1357 and slowly drifted lower towards the 1.10 handle. In EURUSD a break of 1.10 and 1.1150 should determine but only the next 2 big figures. CMP 1.1080.

USDJPY trended lower from 112 to 106 in the first half and then back to 110 levels since August. The move up has got resisted at 200WMA at 109.75 which looks like a hard ceiling given the price action. CMP 109.40.

USDCNY fix started 2019 at 6.7 levels and headed to 7.1 as trade war escalated. The cool of to current 7 levels was on account of expectations of a phase 1 deal. A break of 6.98 on USDCNY fix would indicate a lower breakout in the pair and should result in EM currency appreciation across when it happens. CMP 7.01.

Price action in USDINR mostly stayed in the range of 69-72; but RBI intervention since October 2019 has shifted the base higher to 70.70 levels which looks like a hard floor now (except if USDCNY fix breaks below 6.98). On the other hand a weekly close past 72.40 in USDINR could pave the way for a move towards 74 levels. CMP 71.18.