INR update: Month end price action watched as US-China deal goes down to the wire

The market continues to remain uncertain on the trade deal as the fresh tariff deadline of 15^thDecember nears. Mostly USDCNY fix moves in one direction during a given week and this week it started from 7.0397 before making a low of 7.0271 yesterday and registering a bounce to 7.0298 today. This indicates that the US and China were moving closer to the deal before the HK bill became law on Wednesday. 

A monthly closing in dollar index above 98.9 (not the preferred view) would be significantly bullish in an otherwise range bound market. 

Nifty is at a crucial juncture and a weekly closing below 12,050 (CMP 12,111) would perhaps indicate 11,400 and the same would be accompanied with risk off sentiments across currencies (not the preferred view). 

USDINR 1m NDF is trading 0.5p left while EM currencies have mildly depreciated since yesterday. Asian equities are in the red today as China threatened retaliation to the HK bill. Yesterday USDINR was bought aggressively by custodian banks and commodity importers. A weekly closing for USDINR outside 71.30-71.75 is important for a fresh trend. For the day CMP 71.72, Range 71.80-71.50.