Wednesday, August 14, 2019

INR update: Trade talks to resume; Risk sentiments to remain supported



US delayed tariffs on select imports from China till Dec 15th plus they agreed to resume talks in 2 weeks time. For Trump to retrace yesterday and give ground to China would not have been easy. Headlines said that China and US will talk again in 2 weeks over phone. Now for 2 weeks at least Trump would not touch the trade war topic and at the same time we could see China ensuring that Yuan moves towards or below the 7 handle to facilitate talks.

While there is no consistent trend to a politician’s mind, it seems that the next two weeks or slightly more can be good for risk sentiments. This time leading to the talks between US and China should see both parties maintaining market calm and positivity. Plus the risk off move that we have seen in the last 10 days would be reversed leading to a decent rally in risk assets over the next fortnight.

USDINR should overall follow USDCNH. A move towards 70.55 this week should not be a surprise now considering the Yuan move plus squaring of long positions.


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