INR update: Range prevails as nationalized banks continue to buy

Chinese, Indian and Korean data releases suggests that  emerging markets in Asia are struggling for growth but the impact on their respective currency is made difficult to comprehend with a slowing US economy and ongoing trade war. ECB and FED seem to be tilting more and more towards easier monetary policy. Overall given the dovish DM central banks and trade war I would continue to expect a weakening dollar in the medium term (3-6 months). This week US Services ISM, EZ retail sales and NFP would be critical for global currencies.

USDINR continues to see heavy intervention by nationalized banks and therefore in the short term 68.90-69.20 range should prevail unless crude oil or CNH moves substantially. I would continue to expect limited but further INR appreciation, a break of 68.80 should bring in 68.30. Today there seems to be an inflow which is getting absorbed by nationalized bank buying. For the day CMP 68.98, Range 69.10-68.85.