Tuesday, May 7, 2019

INR update: Trade war risks abate, EU data holds, Inflows dominate price action in Rupee



With no retaliation from China, the duty imposed by Trump on Chinese import has become blunt in terms of market impact, as participants seem convinced that the move was more of a negotiating tactic rather than a policy step. The Chinese have shown tenacity and have refused to get provoked which has continued to help risk sentiments. EU data has shown mild resilience which has prevented the Euro from convincingly breaking 1.1150 levels, but I guess it is a matter of time before a down trend starts in EURUSD.  

USDINR 1m NDF is trading 5.5p right as compared to 6-7p yesterday morning. Equities in Asia are flat to mildly positive while EM currencies have also registered moderate gains since yesterday evening. Oil price seems to have been controlled by OPEC under the US demands post the Iran sanctions. Price action in USDINR everyday suggests some chunky inflows going through. Anecdotal evidence suggests a continued eagerness to complete capital account transactions before India election results. CMP 69.35, Range 69.35-69.20. Medium term it looks like USDINR would break towards 68.30 levels again in view of the capital account inflows and abating risks to Rupee (like oil and trade war).

No comments:

Post a Comment