Wednesday, November 14, 2018

INR update: Oil fall accelerates amid global growth concerns



Global growth concerns are weighing on equities making today’s EU GDP and IIP data very critical for risk sentiments and the Euro. A negative surprise in this can decisively break the 200 WMA in EURUSD at 1.1310 taking the pair towards 1.10 while a positive surprise can make the 200 WMA a medium term bottom. Given Praet’s dovish comments yesterday the chances of a negative surprise looks more likely.

The pace of fall in oil prices is increasing which shows that the bottom can still be some distance away. USDINR 1m NDF is trading 4.5p left while other EM currencies have not appreciated as much (except CNH). Fall in EURUSD should on an intraday basis affect the Rupee (and vice versa). Looking at the price action since morning it seems that USDINR might head towards 72.20 again before it gets sold off. Last time when Brent was at 65 levels (March 2018) USDINR was at 65.5 levels, although it is not a one to one comparison but most of the negativity in Rupee this year was on account of higher trade deficit, and therefore if other factors support the downside for USDINR pair could be significant. Medium term range now shifts to 72.40-71.50; CMP 72.14, Range 72.20-71.90.

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