In spite of the fact that Draghi made the right noises for
the Euro, EURUSD broke 1.14 convincingly with the next major support at 1.1316
and 1.1297 (200 wma and last low). Similarly the dollar index has convincingly
broken 200WMA and looks headed to 97 where it will face the last high
resistance (CMP 96.6). Equity markets continue to register large intraday
fluctuations although the weekly trend still points towards further losses.
Today the most critical piece of information will be the US GDP for 3rd
quarter and a surprise above 3.3% can result in further dollar gains.
CNH and other EM currencies have weakened overnight as
dollar strengthened. Crude oil continues to trade lower around 76 levels. USDINR
1m NDF is trading flat in spite of the weakness in other Asian currencies.
Price action since morning is similar to what has happened this week which is
showing more offers than bids in USDINR. Over the last 2 days FPIs seem to have
invested significantly in Indian debt while outflows continue from equities.
Medium term range for USDINR should remain 73.25-73.75 with dollar strength
likely to prevent more INR gains. CMP 73.36, Range 73.32-73.50.
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