Wednesday, July 18, 2018

INR update: Dollar gains as CNH shows depreciations risks again

Powell’s speech showed a mild doubt in continuing to raise rates by saying that “for now” gradual rate hikes seem appropriate. But overall post Powell’s speech we saw shorter end US yields rising as markets became more confident of further rate hikes and the 10-2 spread narrowed again to 25bps. The dollar gained on the back of rising shorter term yields and continued strength in US economy.

 

Oil is trading lower while USDCNH continues to show risks of trade war. USDCNH has moved from 6.68 yesterday afternoon to 6.74 now. This has only caused mild selloff in other EM currencies but at the same time it will prevent incremental appreciation of EMs. USDINR 1m NDF is trading 2p left like yesterday. Equities continue their stellar run (at the headline index level at least). Runaway depreciation in INR for now looks unlikely. Broad range is 68.25-68.85. For today CMP 68.51, Range 68.45-68.70.

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