Tuesday, May 15, 2018

INR update: BJP emerges with clear majority  

US Bond yields are higher at 3.02% which has resulted in mild dollar strength since yesterday. A weekly close in US10Y yields above 3.05% along with 10-2 spread above 50bps (unlikely) could change the lower dollar index view. EU GDP and US retail sales will be the two important pieces of information along with FED speak.

 

BJP’s has won a clear majority in Karnataka against all expectations which has taken Nifty higher by 1%. Rupee and bond markets both ignored the news which started INR appreciation in March 2017, i.e., of continued political stability in India. A daily closing today below 67.45 would indicate some relief to the up move that we have seen. Nationalized banks have been buying USDINR aggressively at dips (67.55) which is surprising while they also sell the pair at higher levels leaving other participants confused regarding their policy objective (perhaps deliberate!). Not that volatility has been contained either. I would still expect the electoral outcome to reflect in Rupee by EOD although the dip needs to be bought given the rising bond yields. CMP 67.53, Range 67.70-67.20.  

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