Trump is likely to sign the trade tariffs today which can push the dollar lower. But before that we have the ECB which the market had expected to be relatively more hawkish giving incremental details on tapering. But with the dark clouds of trade wars rising, I suspect that ECB could end up giving itself more time before it signals further withdrawal. This could temporarily push the EURO lower towards 1.2350, a level that should hold. Once the ECB is behind us we could start seeing dollar weakness again as the market looks ahead to the NFP tomorrow.
USDINR 1m NDF is trading flat, it was trading 4p right 2 days back. EM currencies are trading flat while Asian equities are trading in the green. Although equities look weak, March seasonality, flows, recent price action and most importantly dollar weakness makes me think that INR can move towards 64.64 levels in the next week or so. CMP 64.98, Range 65.05-64.87.
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