Thursday, January 18, 2018

INR update: Repatriation hopes boosts USD and equities

The news that Apple has provided for repatriation tax of USD 38 bn makes the market infer that Apple is going to repatriate USD 245bn to the US which perhaps bolstered US equities and the dollar. Expectations of other corporate following Apple’s footsteps of increasing investments in the US could keep the Dow rallying and along with it global equities. But a repatriation led equity rally would be accompanied by moderate dollar strength in the short term like yesterday. USD index faces strong resistance at 91 levels, break of which in 4 hourly can take the index 1% higher.

 

USDINR 1m NDF is trading flat while KRW and CNH are trading mildly weaker than yesterday. Of late, equities and INR do not correlate intraday as currencies seem to track global dollar moves irrespective of equity direction. USD index resistance at 91 become important to ascertain the direction for INR for the day. Although sentiments for INR don’t seem to be strong currently but a couple of days of failure to close above 64 can lead to a sharp reversal also. CMP 63.93, Range 63.82-64.10.

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