Inflation concerns in the US continue as the GDP data shows that price index rose lesser than expected while growth numbers weren’t too impressive either. For this kind of inflation numbers coupled with Trump’s inability to push through the healthcare bill, US10Y yields at 2.28% looks a little high, as compared to 1.8% in Oct 2016 before Trump came into power. This is an important data week with major prints everyday from US and EU.
RBI announces its monetary policy on Wednesday. I am expecting a 50bps rate cut as against market expectation of 25 bps. The rationale being that real rates in India are currently very high (4%+) while even if we take inflation average of 3% over the next 6 months, the real rates will hover around 3% at current rates. RBI has previously given a guidance of real rates of 1.5%-2% and therefore a 25 bps rate cut does not seem enough. High real rates increase hot money inflow into debt increasing appreciation pressure on the INR which seems to be something that RBI is against as of now. Therefore a higher rate cut will also release the debt inflow pressure on the currency subsequently.
USDINR gave a weekly close below 200 week MA for the first time since July 2011. In July 2011 the low was made with an RSI divergence while this time the 200 MA has been broken with considerably more momentum and therefore technically it seems we can see follow through. USDINR 1m NDF is trading 6p left and INR appreciation over the last 2 days seems to be in divergence to other EM currencies showing RBI’s willingness to allow INR appreciation. I would expect INR to appreciate towards 63.75 by Wednesday. For the day, CMP 64.08, Range 64.15-63.91.
Good Analysis Saket.. I think we can even see 64.50 incase of 50bps cut
ReplyDeleteVery well written Saket Sir….
ReplyDeleteI have a doubt that considering only 6 months inflation average and taking call for 50bps rate cut, sounds little uncomfortable. I think RBI will act by keeping in mind at least 3-4 quarter scenario i.e. 1-1.5 year and based on this tenor considering average inflation of 3% is on toss. On the other hand even if they cut rate by 50bps considering longer path, I believe Rupee will start depreciating as FII start withdrawing money because in similar period FED will also act by raising rate at least twice or may be more of 25bps each and that will lead to their base rate closer to 2.00%, which is closer to India’s real rate of return with marginal difference.
Overall, with global economies QE unwinding pressure together with domestic inflationary pressure due to GST and oil prices, I feel rupee might depreciate to 66.50-67.00 zone. Short term appreciation till 63.75 can’t be ruled out post RBI policy meet.
"For this kind of inflation numbers coupled with Trump’s inability to push through the healthcare bill, US10Y yields at 2.28% looks a little high, as compared to 1.8% in Oct 2016 before Trump came into power."
ReplyDeleteAgreed with rationale above but now there is an additional info: "Fed Balance sheet reduction"