EURUSD view: French Elections - Le Pen fails to arouse curiosity!

The general view for French elections seems to be:

·        In the first round none of the candidates will get more than 50% of the votes so a second round looks inevitable

·        2 candidates will make it to the second round and Marine Le pen might emerge as the highest vote grosser in the first round

·        In the second round, the distributed votes will mostly go to the other candidate (against Le Pen) because of lack of acceptance that Le Pen faces in the larger population, thus the chances of Le Pen becoming French President seems low.

This view is reflected in the Euro and DAX which seems to be trading stable currently.

I would think that one of the reason that Trump became President was because of the curiosity he invoked leading to familiarity (although negative) which got converted to votes. Marine Le Pen doesn’t seem to be able to arouse the same curiosity either as Francoise Fillon seems to be leading the search hits on Google in the last 1 month (see screen shots below). Trump led search hits on google consistently over Clinton in the preceding 1 month to the elections while Le Pen is trailing Francois Fillon in spite of her far right anti establishment rhetoric.

Thus a trade idea could be to buy EURUSD on dips after the first round Le Pen victory. I would expect Euro to test 1.05 if Le Pen makes it to the second round. EURUSD looks like moving higher as UST yields have moved lower on the back of negative surprise in US data over the last fortnight.

First round 23^rd April 2017-04-18 and second round on 7^th May 2017.